Charlie's Forecasts for Laurel Ridge

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PACCSA member Charlie Becker does weather forecasting as a hobby and will share some of his predictions with us throughout the winter season. If severe weather is anticipated, please refer to your local weather and/or the National Weather Service for any advisories that may have been issued.

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Fri 26 Oct 2012

Winter Storm Update #1 - 10/26/2012
Well,
The (NON) Winter of 2011/2012 - how could we have been so wrong?  The up and coming storm provides the answers.  It's rare that we get to talk about a storm before the "official" PACCSA winter outlook due to a hurricane but such is the case.  It seems strange but Hurricane Sandy just passed by as I write this from Melbourne, Fla. with nothing more than wind (40mph) and rain.  The last track forecasts have Sandy taking a hard left around the Delmarva Peninsula and making a bee line for Central Pa. The storm will be heading into an early Arctic blast so, yes folks; snow on The Ridge is a distinct possibility come mid-week.  From October 2011 through March 2012, both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Oscillation (AO) were primarily positive.  The NAO and AO are two global patterns, along with the ENSO (El Nino), that play a major role in our weather. When both are positive The Ridge is unlikely to see snow.  Presently, both have tanked and are clocking on the negative side.  A negative NAO opens up the Atlantic coast for storms to track northward.  A negative AO opens up the Arctic allowing cold air to migrate south.  When a storm of historic significance tracks into an Arctic blast someone will get a blizzard.   As always, the exact track is a guess this far out but the models are in agreement that the storm abruptly comes inland through the Delmarva.  Where it goes from there will determine whether or not The Ridge is in for an early blizzard. Could this signify the pattern we can expect for this winter?  Get those skis ready now.
See you on The Ridge,
Charlie

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